Projected Changes in Water Year Types and Hydrological Drought in California’s Central Valley in the 21st Century

The study explores the potential changes in water year types and hydrological droughts as well runoff, based on which former two metrics are calculated Central Valley of California, United States, 21st century. latest operative projections from four representative climate models under greenhouse-gas emission scenarios employed for this purpose. shows that temporal distribution annual runoff is expected to change terms shifting more volume wet season (October–March) snowmelt (April–July). Increases noticeable higher (versus lower) scenario, while decreases generally significant lower higher) scenario. In comparison, influenced by rather than scenarios. When comparing regions Valley, rain-dominated Sacramento River region projected experience years less critical snow-dominated San Joaquin due their hydroclimatic geographic differences. Hydrological mostly exhibit upward downward trends, respectively. However, uncertainty direction trend multi-year scales tends be climate-model dependent. Overall, highlights non-stationarity long-term these metrics. They need considered when developing adaptive resources management strategies, some discussed study.